Week 16 NFL Picks: Fragile Houston Texans Visit Indianapolis Colts

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Week 16 NFL Picks: Fragile Houston Texans Visit Indianapolis Colts

Analysis:
The Indianapolis Colts has owned the AFC South ever since # 18 has donned the jersey. The Houston Texans entered the league in 2002, and the road to the AFC South title has typically gone through Indianapolis. Houston's first choice back then was a quarterback named David Carr who now carries a clipboard in New York. While sitting at the top of the recruiting chain, the Texans made some peculiar moves in order to compete and their deciders were indefatigably questioned for their motives.

That script has finally changed this season for Houston, which has already wrapped up the division title and would like to use Thursday night's visit to the Colts as a steppingstone to even loftier goals. A vengeance of sorts. The Texans are still in the hunt for one of the top two seeds and a first-round bye in the playoffs, but they'll need to end a major hex by winning in Indianapolis for the first time. The Colts finally got in the win column last week with a 27-13 victory over Tennessee.

While the Indianapolis Colts were at long last able to get over the hump this past weekend, the Houston Texans and their rookie fill-in quarterback encountered their first bump in the road in quite some time.

Though Houston has already wrapped up its first-ever AFC South title, ending the once-mighty Colts' normal stranglehold on the division in the process, the postseason newcomers are still in a battle for the right to skip the Wild Card Round in the upcoming playoffs by seizing one of the conference's top two seeds.

The Texans lost some ground in the chase, however, with last Sunday's 28-13 home defeat to upstart Carolina that also ended the team's franchise- record seven-game winning streak. As a result, Houston enters the season's final two weeks tied with Baltimore for second place in the AFC, but sit behind the Ravens in the pecking order because of a head-to-head loss back in October. Both clubs trail New England by one game in the overall standings.

The absence of a few key cogs finally caught up to the Texans in their matchup with the Panthers. Young signal-caller T.J. Yates, promoted from third string on the depth chart into a coerced starter's role due to injuries to veterans Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart, threw a pair of costly interceptions in his third career NFL start, while Houston's usually-sturdy defense surrendered a season- high 166 rushing yards with esteemed coordinator Wade Phillips missing the game due to medical reason.

As the Texans enter last Lucas Oil Stadium on a bit of a down note, the Colts enter this midweek tilt riding a rare high after breaking through for a long-awaited victory No. 1 of a disastrous 2011 campaign. Indianapolis avoided the humiliating possibility of becoming only the second team in NFL history to go 0-16 in a season with last week's 27-13 decision over visiting Tennessee.

Houston will be trying to make some additional history in what's already been a momentous season when it takes the field on Thursday. The Texans have never beaten the Colts in Indianapolis in nine previous tries, nor have they ever swept a home-and-home set from their division rival in the same year.

The Texans routed the Colts in Houston by a 34-7 count in the 2011 opener.

Running back Donald Brown led the way with a career-best 161 rushing yards on only 16 carries, nearly half of which came on a game-sealing 80-yard touchdown burst with 3:26 to go. Indianapolis' maligned defense also rose to the occasion by forcing three Titans' turnovers, including a interception by Jacob Lacey that the cornerback returned for a score in the third quarter.

The Colts prevailed despite just 82 passing yards from quarterback Dan Orlovsky, an ex-Texan who was making his third straight start as the latest to try to fill the sizeable void left by Manning's career-threatening neck procedure that's kept the four-time league MVP sidelined this entire season. Orlovsky had spent the previous two years with Houston, but was deemed expendable when the team selected Yates in the fifth round of this past April's draft.

Indianapolis has dominated the all-time series between these teams, with Houston's above-mentioned Week 1 shellacking at Reliant Stadium only the Texans' third win in 19 lifetime meetings against the Colts. Houston has come out on top of two of their last three bouts with Indianapolis, however, having posted a 34-24 home verdict in the opening game of the 2010 season before the Colts exacted revenge via a 30-17 score at Lucas Oil Stadium later in the year.

Gary Kubiak has gone 3-8 against the Colts during his six-year tenure with the Texans, while Jim Caldwell owns a 3-2 mark against both Houston and Kubiak as a head coach.

Time & Venue:
- 8:20 PM ET, Thursday, December 22, 2011. Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Last Week's results:
- Houston Texans (-6) loses to visiting Carolina Panthers 28-13.
- Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) beats visiting Tennessee Titans 27-13.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Houston Texans (10-4) loses outright
- Underdog Indianapolis Colts (1-13) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: Texans -6, O/U 40

Next up:
- Houston home to Tennessee Titans, Sunday, January 1
- Indianapolis at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, January 1

Houston had its seven-game winning streak snapped at home by Carolina, a loss that cost the Texans a chance to move ahead of Baltimore. WR Andre Johnson (hamstring) will sit out his third straight game, so expect rookie QB T.J. Yates to hand off liberally to RBs Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Foster has rushed for 333 yards and two TDs in two games vs. the Colts, and Ben Tate went for 116 yards and a TD in a season-opening 34-7 win over the Colts. Yates was intercepted twice last week.

Indianapolis has yielded an AFC-worst 395 points, but its defense came through with the decisive play to snap its 13-game skid when Jacob Lacey returned an interception for a touchdown against the Titans. It marked only the second time that the Colts have held an opponent under 20 points. QB Dan Orlovsky threw for only 87 yards and the Colts managed just 10 first downs, but Donald Brown rambled for a career-high 161 yards, including a clinching 80-yard touchdown run. Brown has a TD in three of his last four games.

Neither team will be fielding its intended regular at the position, and both enter this game with some questions that still need to be answered from its replacement field general. It's up to Yates to prove he can shake off his first questionable outing since becoming a starter, while Orlovsky has to be competent and virtually mistake-free against a tough defense for the underdog Colts to have a reasonable chance.

The Texans are going to ask Foster and Tate to carry the offense and ease the burden on Yates, and stand an excellent chance of winning if the two dangerous backs can run wild. The Colts would have a far better chance of pulling off the upset if they can keep them under wraps and allow Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to give Houston's rookie quarterback an uncomfortable evening by applying consistent pressure.

The Texans' linebackers coach Reggie Herring will be running the defense for a second week in a row with Phillips still out of action, and his debut in the coordinator's role delivered mixed results. The Colts rank 31st in the league in total offense and mustered a scant 236 total yards in their Week 1 loss to Houston, so if the Texans perform somewhere close to their usual standards they should be just fine.

Foster rushed for a franchise-record 231 yards against the Colts in Week 1 of the 2010 season.

Colts DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have 15.5 and 12.2 sacks, respectively, against the Texans – their most vs. any opponent.

Houston is 0-9 all time in Indy, but is 4-0 against the AFC South this season.

Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing Indianapolis

While it's true that the Colts haven't been very competitive when going up against an upper-echelon opponent this season, there's reason to believe the front-runners for next year's No. 1 overall draft pick can give the injury- plagued Texans a run for their money.

Houston's offense has hardly been a juggernaut in Yates' three starts, with the team having averaged less than 17 points during the 24-year-old's time at the controls, and Indianapolis has been respectable on the defensive end since firing coordinator Larry Coyer in late November and replacing him with linebackers coach Mike Murphy.

That trend may continue for another week with the Texans still in the process of getting the offense in sync and the difference-making Johnson once again out of commission, but Houston's outstanding running game and top-notch defense should be enough to get the new AFC South kings back in the win column

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NFL Football Pick: Take Texans.

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afc south - andre johnson - arian foster - ben tate - dan orlovsky - david carr - donald brown - dwight freeney - gary kubiak - houston texans

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