Luck On Indianapolis Side As They Take On Jacksonville Jaguars

Saturday, December 31, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Luck On Indianapolis Side As They Take On Jacksonville Jaguars

Analysis:
It takes talent ,and a little luck, to prosper in the NFL. Fans of the Indianapolis Colts are hoping they get to find out if that's true. The Colts will look to wrap up their season with a third consecutive win when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. A victory will not be the best outcome for the Colts, who have jeopardized their lock on the No. 1 pick in next year's draft by posting back-to-back wins.

Indianapolis is tied with the St. Louis Rams for the league's worst record and could blow a shot at drafting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with a win over Jacksonville. The Jaguars have also endured a miserable season in which coach Jack Del Rio was fired.

Simply put, the Colts could lose the top overall pick if they beat the 4-11 Jaguars and the Rams lose as expected to the playoff-bound San Francisco 49ers this weekend.

If both teams finish with identical marks, Indianapolis would maintain the No. 1 slot and have first crack at selecting Luck, seen by many as the ideal heir apparent to an aging 35-year-old Peyton Manning, who's missed the entire 2011 schedule after a pair of neck surgeries.

St. Louis's actions with the pick would be unclear, given that the Rams drafted quarterback Sam Bradford with the first overall pick in 2010.

The Colts dropped a 17-3 home verdict to Jacksonville on Nov. 13 after gaining just 212 yards of offense. Meanwhile, Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew gained 114 yards on his own in that contest.

Jones-Drew enters the season's final week with a league-best 1,437 yards rushing, 128 more than Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy. He's accounted for 46.5 percent of Jacksonville's offense this season, a pace that's well ahead of former teammate Fred Taylor's club record of 36.2 percent set in 2003.

The Pro Bowl back could be the second player since 1995 to lead the league in rushing with the NFL's worst passing offense. Previously, Baltimore's Jamal Lewis accomplished the feat in 2003.

Sunday's game will be the Jaguars' last under owners Wayne and Delores Weaver, who helped bring the franchise to Jacksonville in 1995. Shahid Khan bought the team two weeks ago for $760 million and will officially take over on Jan. 4.

Indianapolis has prevailed in 15 of 21 all-time matchups with Jacksonville, but the Jaguars have won two of the last three meetings in the series and dealt the Colts a 31-28 loss at EverBank Field last season. Indianapolis had come out on top in three consecutive visits to Jacksonville prior to that defeat, including a 35-31 verdict in 2009, and sports a 7-3 overall record as the visitor in this set. The Colts' most recent triumph over the Jaguars came at home by a 34-24 score during December of the 2010 campaign, and Jacksonville has never previously recorded a season sweep over Indianapolis in its history.

Six of the last eight contests between these teams have been decided by seven points or less, and five of those tilts had a margin of victory of four points or fewer.

Indianapolis' Jim Caldwell owns a 3-2 career record against Jacksonville as a head coach, while Tucker will be opposing both Caldwell and the Colts for the first time as a man in charge.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 1, 2012. EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Last Week's results:
- Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) beats visiting Houston Texans 19-16.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) loses to host Tennessee Titans 23-17.

Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Indianapolis Colts (2-13) wins outright
- Underdog Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) loses but covers.

NFL Football Odds: Jaguars -3.5, O/U 37.5

Playoff Picture:
- Indianapolis Colts: Eliminated (week 12)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Eliminated (week 13)

In a season short on highlights, Indianapolis pulled off a dramatic win when Dan Orlovsky threw a TD pass to Reggie Wayne for a 19-16 win over Houston last week. Orlovsky has won back-to-back games after staring his career 0-9. It marked only the third 100-yard game of the season for Wayne, who is in the final year of his contract. The Colts held an opponent under 20 points for the second straight week after doing it just once in the previous 13 games – a 17-3 home loss to Jacksonville in Week 10.

The Jaguars ranked last in the league with an average of 161.2 passing yards per game. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert has surpassed 200 yards in a game three times and has the lowest passer rating in the league at 64.3. Jacksonville has scored 20 points just twice in Gabbert's tenure, a number that may have to improve with Indianapolis having been a bit better on offense since Orlovsky took over.

The Jaguars, who've lost five of six games since defeating the Colts in Week 10, haven't had a plus-.500 season since going 11-5 and reaching the playoffs in 2007, but will be motivated to send the Weavers out in style. Indianapolis, meanwhile, would love to finish what's been a dreadful campaign strong to build momentum for the upcoming season.

Indianapolis veterans such as Wayne, Robert Mathis and center Jeff Saturday are each in the final year of their respective contracts and may be playing their final game with the Colts, which could also serve as an intangible. Wayne caught the decisive pass in the final seconds of last week's 19-16 defeat of Houston.

Wayne needs 113 yards to reach 1,000 for the eighth straight season.

Orlovsky missed practice Wednesday after his wife gave birth to triplets.

Since the AFC went to four divisions in 2002, Jacksonville has never swept the Colts in a season.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Indianapolis's last 18 games on the road

The Jaguars have been no one's example of success this season, but they do have this particular game's best player in Jones-Drew and a defense that's high-end enough to shut down an offense led by the likes of Orlovsky. The Indianapolis veterans might have a bullet or two left in the gun, but the matchups on both sides of the ball tip the scales in the home team's favor.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Jaguars.

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blaine gabbert - dan orlovsky - everbank field - houston texans - indianapolis colts - jacksonville jaguars - jeff saturday - lesean mccoy - maurice jones-drew - peyton manning

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