Improving Minnesota Vikings Meet Undisciplined Detroit Lions

Saturday, December 10, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Christian Ponder - Improving Minnesota Vikings Meet Undisciplined Detroit Lions

Analysis:
Back-to-back losses marred by startling examples of undisciplined play has placed the Detroit Lions' once rock-solid playoff hopes in question. They'll be hoping their newfound success against the Minnesota Vikings can help them get their act back together.

The Lions will be shooting for their first season sweep of the downtrodden Vikings, who may be without two vitally-important offensive players, in 14 years when the two NFC North members renew their longstanding rivalry Sunday at Ford Field.

Detroit had appeared well on its way towards ending a postseason drought that's lasted since 1999 after winning its first five games of this 2011 campaign. The Lions have dropped five of seven contests since, however, which includes three double-digit defeats to fellow conference contenders in a four-week span.

The last two losses have been particularly newsworthy. A 27-15 home setback to powerhouse Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day was highlighted by an ejection for troublesome defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh for kicking a Packers' offensive lineman, while a wave of irresponsible penalties helped led to the Lions' demise in a 31-17 ousting by NFC South leader New Orleans this past Sunday.

Detroit was flagged 11 times for 107 yards against the Saints, including two unsportsmanlike conduct calls and an unnecessary roughness infraction that all wound up stalling drives and killing momentum.

Turnovers and poor defense have also been contributing factor to Detroit's rough 1-3 stretch, which began with a 37-13 manhandling by divisional foe Chicago on Nov. 13 in which quarterback Matthew Stafford threw four interceptions. The 2009 No. 1 overall pick was picked off three times by the Packers two weeks later, and the defense has been lit up for 130 points over the four games while surrendering 393 total yards or more in each of those tilts.

The Vikings hope to continue that trend after putting forth one of their best offensive showings of the year, albeit in yet another loss. Minnesota piled up a season-high 489 total yards against resurgent Denver last weekend, but wound up on the short end of a 35-32 decision after the Broncos kicked two field goals in the final two minutes, the last of which came as time expired.

Rookie quarterback Christian Ponder was impressive for Minnesota in his sixth career start, throwing for a personal-best 381 yards and three touchdowns on 29-of-47 passing. The 2011 first-round choice also had two costly interceptions, however, with the final one leading to the deciding kick.

Ponder suffered a hip pointer in the loss as well, and his status for Sunday's showdown may not be determined until pregame warmups. Raw second-year project Joe Webb would draw the start if he can't go.

The Vikings, who have lost four in a row and have compiled their worst record after 12 games in the franchise's 51 years of existence, did get some better news on running back Adrian Peterson this week. The four-time All-Pro has sat out the team's last two bouts with an ankle sprain, but returned to practice on Thursday and is optimistic he'll be able to suit up against the Lions.

He'll be attempting to help Minnesota halt a string of two straight negative results versus Detroit that followed a dominant nine-year run in the series in which the Vikings won 16 of 17 matchups. The Lions set up the possibility of a first home-and-home sweep of Minnesota since 1997 with a thrilling 26-23 overtime triumph at the Metrodome in Week 3, with Detroit overcoming a 20-0 halftime deficit to prevail.

The Lions enter this week's slate tied with both Chicago and Atlanta, which bested Detroit at Ford Field back on Oct. 23, in the race for the NFC's two Wild Card berths, but won't have Suh available for a second straight week after having his appeal of a two-game suspension for the incident against Green Bay denied by the league office.

The Vikings hold a 66-32-2 lead in their all-time series with the Lions but as previously mentioned, have lost the last two meetings between the clubs. In addition to the above-noted overtime win in September, Detroit topped Minnesota by a 20-13 score at Ford Field in the 2010 regular-season finale.

The Vikings did record a 24-10 verdict over the Lions in Minneapolis during Week 3 of last year and have gone 7-2 in their past nine visits to the Motor City, with the only other blemish other than the most recent encounter at Ford Field a 20-17 overtime defeat in 2007. Minnesota had won six straight games in the set prior to Detroit's 2010 breakthrough.

Jim Schwartz is just 2-3 against Minnesota since taking over in Detroit in 2009 but has won his only two head-to-head battles with Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier, the latter's only two previous games against the Lions in his present position.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 11, 2011. Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

Last Week's results:
- Minnesota Vikings (-1) loses to visiting Denver Broncos 35-32.
- Detroit Lions (+9) loses to host New Orleans Saints 31-17.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Minnesota Vikings (2-10) loses outright
- Underdog Detroit Lions (7-5) loses and does not cover.

NFL Football Odds: Lions -9.5, O/U 46.5

Sports Betting

Next up:
- Minnesota home to New Orleans Saints, Sunday, December 18
- Detroit at Oakland Raiders, Sunday, December 18

Minnesota’s depleted secondary is so bad it allowed Tim Tebow to have success (10 of 15, 202 yards, 2 TDs) in a 35-32 loss to Denver. Christian Ponder set a franchise rookie record with 381 yards and three touchdowns, but his second interception set up the game-winning field goal. Ponder threw two touchdowns to Percy Harvin, who had a career-high 156 yards.

Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson (high ankle sprain), who is tied for 11th with 872 rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns (11), is hoping to return after a two-game absence. Peterson told a local radio station he's about “70 percent.” He didn’t practice Wednesday, but will test his ankle Friday. Peterson’s replacement, Toby Gerhart, ran for a career-high 91 yards on 21 carries last week.

The Lions have lost five of seven after getting off to their best start in 56 years, and many of the setbacks have featured mindless penalties. Detroit was flagged 11 times for 107 yards in a 31-17 loss to New Orleans Sunday night. It leads the league with 26 personal fouls. TE Brandon Pettigrew could also face punishment after he shoved an official who was trying to separate him from Saints safety Roman Harper on Sunday night. The penalties overshadowed a solid effort from Matthew Stafford, who threw for a season-high 408 yards with one touchdown and one interception. RB Kevin Smith is questionable after re-injuring his ankle against the Saints.

The decision the Vikings make at the position will affect how both of this teams operate on Sunday, as Ponder and Webb bring two very different skill sets to the table. Though Minnesota won't be as balanced offensively if it's forced to use a third-stringer with just two career starts under his belt, the uncertainty could conceivably work in its favor with the Lions having to prepare for the possibility of two signal-callers with contrasting strengths.

As the more talented team in the thick of a playoff race playing at home, the Lions shouldn't have too much trouble getting past a depleted Minnesota squad with all kinds of injury questions as long as they don't self- destruct once again by committing dumb penalties and losing their composure. A faster start than what they put together in the first meeting would also be beneficial, as the odds are against Detroit climbing out of a 20-point hole twice in a row.

The Lions also can't afford to be as sloppy with the football as they've been in recent weeks. After turning the ball over a mere five times during its 6-2 start, Detroit has had a whopping 13 giveaways in losing three of its last four games, with Stafford tossing 10 interceptions during that stretch. Clearly, the Vikings' chances of coming out with a win are greatly enhanced if the Lions once again are inundated with mistakes.

"I would have bet my paycheck that he would not have beat us passing the ball." – Vikings DE Jared Allen on Tebow, whose completion percentage rose to 47.5.

The Lions are seeking to win three straight over Minnesota for the first time since 1991-92.

The Vikings have allowed an NFL-worst 24 touchdown passes.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Detroit is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

It's hard to decipher just how a Minnesota team that has little to play for at this stage and may not have Ponder at all along with Peterson at less than 100 percent will come out and execute, so there's certainly potential for a Detroit blowout here. However, the Lions' injuries on defense and mistake-prone tendencies over the past few weeks don't inspire a great deal of confidence that they'll be able to cruise to a much-needed victory.

Though both of these teams have much different compositions than when they squared off back in September, it's still important to note that the game was decided in overtime and Detroit did have to scratch and claw its way to win. The Lions probably won't have as much trouble in the rematch, but their lackluster recent play on defense may allow the Vikings to score enough to keep it relatively close.

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NFL Football Pick: Take points and Vikings.

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adrian peterson - brandon pettigrew - christian ponder - denver broncos - detroit lions - ford field - jared allen - jim schwartz - joe webb - kevin smith

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